Description

This analysis provides a forecast of VET prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-06-15 0.017393 0.019711 0.022227 0.025162 0.028493 0.032157 0.036495
2025-06-22 0.013127 0.016169 0.019757 0.024306 0.029927 0.036654 0.045331
2025-06-29 0.010956 0.014278 0.018424 0.023988 0.031273 0.040509 0.053142
2025-07-06 0.009229 0.012592 0.016989 0.023168 0.031652 0.042928 0.059114
2025-07-13 0.008482 0.012047 0.016897 0.023997 0.034160 0.048238 0.069322
2025-07-20 0.007808 0.011495 0.016693 0.024584 0.036308 0.053164 0.079390
2025-07-27 0.007294 0.011095 0.016634 0.025325 0.038687 0.058565 0.090596
2025-08-03 0.006624 0.010383 0.016027 0.025158 0.039643 0.061880 0.098889
2025-08-10 0.006086 0.009810 0.015562 0.025137 0.040782 0.065516 0.107950
2025-08-17 0.005526 0.009144 0.014882 0.024692 0.041169 0.067949 0.115224
2025-08-24 0.005186 0.008799 0.014676 0.024984 0.042762 0.072436 0.126274
2025-08-31 0.004798 0.008335 0.014227 0.024817 0.043545 0.075601 0.135297
2025-09-07 0.004590 0.008170 0.014278 0.025532 0.045952 0.081815 0.150404
2025-09-14 0.004143 0.007543 0.013481 0.024682 0.045504 0.082976 0.156482
2025-09-21 0.003826 0.007121 0.013005 0.024357 0.045964 0.085777 0.165816
2025-09-28 0.003469 0.006594 0.012291 0.023525 0.045389 0.086593 0.171392
2025-10-05 0.003372 0.006546 0.012457 0.024367 0.048075 0.093778 0.190082
2025-10-12 0.003250 0.006438 0.012497 0.024963 0.050323 0.100292 0.208012
2025-10-19 0.003155 0.006373 0.012613 0.025716 0.052941 0.107745 0.228548
2025-10-26 0.002962 0.006096 0.012289 0.025546 0.053652 0.111388 0.241382
2025-11-02 0.002801 0.005871 0.012048 0.025525 0.054665 0.115727 0.256095
2025-11-09 0.002609 0.005565 0.011620 0.025073 0.054715 0.118028 0.266513
2025-11-16 0.002504 0.005435 0.011545 0.025369 0.056412 0.123996 0.285707